Gambler's fallacy (the belief if an event has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future) (en.wikipedia.org)

submitted 11 months ago by dantheclamman@lemmy.world to c/wikipedia@lemmy.world

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[-] mienshao@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

While I understand this logic, I hate it and reject it. If I flip a coin 20 times in a row on heads, bitch I don’t care what you say there’s gotta be a higher chance of tails next flip. WHAT DO YOU MEAN IT’S STILL 50/50 CHANCE?!?? I JUST FLIPPED HEADS 20 TIMES IN A FUCKING ROW!!

[-] dantheclamman@lemmy.world 2 points 11 months ago

Well, you would want to inspect the coin and confirm it wasn't biased. The fallacy is no longer fallacious if every flip is not in fact independent!

[-] bitfucker@programming.dev 1 points 11 months ago

3Blue1Brown always puts it best. There are 2 ways to do statistics. The usual / frequentist, and bayesian / belief model.

this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2025

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