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On track for 2M casualties in March 2028 assuming an average of 900 casualties/day
900 is way too low. I haven't seen a number below a thousand for a long time. From the numbers i remember seeing I'd estimate the average is somewhere around 1250
I just calculated average/day from Feb 24, 2022 to now and got ~900
If your average of ~1250/day holds we reach 2M around October 2027, so if we split the difference it could end up being a milestone reached in time for Christmas 2027.
The numbers have gone way up since the start of the war as Ukraine got better armed
Funny I used exactly 1250 for my calculation before reading your post. 😎
I agree that 1250 is a sensible moderate number to use now.
And by that calculation it is 5 months earlier around October next year.
Yes if you use the average for the entire war, but the past 1½ year the average has been way higher.
If you use an average of 1250 which is still a bit lower than the current average, they will get to 2 million around October next year.
Considering that everybody is talking about a new mass mobilization after the Russian election, my guess is that it will happen even sooner than that.
I'm not going to waste money betting, Ukraine will just ramp up and invalidate all our assumptions anyway.
Yes Ukraine has ramped up a lot lately, and Russia seems to be stagnating.
Seems to me this mobilization is just a hail Mary, because Russia is losing and is out of options.
this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2026
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