Paul Keating says Aukus locking Australia into a US war against China, which it would ‘certainly lose’ (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 4 days ago by naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/australianpolitics@aussie.zone

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He's a bit of a prick but he's not wrong. I wonder what Rudd would think were he not currently a diplomat.

Both were pretty clear-eyed about the opportunities of working with China and the futility of standing against them given the insignificance of Australia as anything but a weapons platform for the imperial machine of the USA.

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[-] shirro@aussie.zone 1 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

We are all so captured by US culture and media I don't think any of us can really think clearly about the state of our alliance and China. We need a diversity of opinions on this so we can have real conversations and start to form our own opinions. The US alliance serves a useful purpose but it has costs as well. It is ok to disagree. We are a sovereign nation with our own interests which may not be the same as US interests. It is very hard to see how conflict with China benefits Australia. It isn't about which foreign power has the most domestic prisoners, the most controlled media, the worst leader, the most similar political system. It is about us and only us.

[-] AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space -1 points 4 days ago

Keating is somewhat dewy-eyed about the CCP. If he had his way, the AFP would be arresting and extraditing Hong Kong democracy activists to order and Xi Jinping Thought would be a compulsory subject in high schools.

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

Sigh.

The usa has the largest prison population in the world and the highest per capita rate of imprisonment and yet we still work with them and even have an extradition treaty. They have a terrible and enormous war machine and prosecute multiple illegal wars constantly and yet our government signs treaties with them.

The EU allows fascists and eugenicists to control Parliament and openly run as these parties and our standards harmonise with theirs and trade agreements are signed. In living memory France was billing former colonies the cost of kicking France out!

Taiwan was literally run by facists and the government worked with them. The ROK is like 8 chaebols in a suit and has fuckall workers rights and we work with them.

Japan is an intensely racist and misogynistic society with a horrifically corrupt and unjust judicial system and yet they are allies.

Saudi Arabia is... well I don't need to go into it.

The reality of the world is that if you make an enemy or every state that does something objectionable and inhumane you will rapidly find yourself a very pure alliance of one amidst a civil war as that purity is established.

Australians cannot gain anything from this. A peaceful and integrated APAC only benefits the freedom and good fortune of everyone. Human rights hardly flourish in an atmosphere of paranoid spying and warmongering.

[-] shivvy@sopuli.xyz 6 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

I get this is lemmy and not Reddit but it's still the internet. I'm not sure you're allowed to make this much sense.

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 4 days ago

I loathe idiotic posturing that reduces politics to aesthetics and reheated opinions served up originally by propagandists.

The world is material, politics are real. We can understand and improve it by analysing it clear-eyed and dispassionately and then find the best way to realise our passions.

You have to live in a fantasy land to think war with china will help anyone.

[-] shivvy@sopuli.xyz 3 points 4 days ago

I tend to agree. Though in reality I don't think we have any stake in a war with China at all. We are insignificant on the world stage with respect to military might and any belief that the US will come save us given their latest track record is copium to say the least. A war for us will mostly just cripple our economy if we take sides.

Our best bet is to make nice with both and wag our finger when they do something we don't like. Not enough for them to respond, just enough to show we saw the news.

Reality is humans in general suck, the idea that any one country is better than the other on human rights violations or general populace control is... Naive.

We can always look to our own back yard with Nauru if we want to be really uncomfortable with ourselves. We aren't saints.

[-] notgold@aussie.zone 3 points 4 days ago

Well said

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 1 points 4 days ago

you really think China is some gentle giant?

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 4 days ago

Do you think the usa is? I think a state being a gentle giant is an absurd criteria to avoid getting into alliances with their primary antagonist that pits you against them in a war.

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone -2 points 4 days ago

who do you think is more likely to attack us, china or the usa?

if/when china invades democratic taiwan like it did hong kong, what do you think we should do? get the un involved? send a strongly worded letter?

[-] hanrahan@slrpnk.net 2 points 4 days ago

the US. Everything they do, they hurt us.
The US has threatened to invade Canada, Greenland, Mexico and Cuba, recently and currently have a pedo, rapist, felon as President (speaking volumes of it's voting ciitizens). We align with them in some horrific shit like the appaling genocide in Palestine

China has some argy bargy with The Philippines over some shoals in the south china sea, fucked over Tibet and has some border argy bargy with India and will take Taiwan at some stage.

The question of their invasion is ridiculous, they could invade Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and and Myanmar, Pakistan, India, Mongolia, Malaysia, Singapore and Bangladesh tomorrow if they wanted, they are literally next door. New Zealand, Fiji etc would offer zero resistance.

They have zero chance of invading and successfully holding Australia, Russia can't even walk into Ukraine and they are next fucking door.

The US cant be relied upon as an ally at all, it told Ukraine it would defend it if it gave up it's nukes, they said tough shit buddy when they were needed.

Should we be best buddies with China ?, of course not but they should be in the same category as say Vietnam

The only reason we'd even be a target is because of stupid shit like ANKUS and the endless US bases on our soil (in many ways, we're a colony if the US already)

China has zero reason to invade, we already sell them everything they want for way cheaper then an invasion would cost.

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 4 days ago

They did not invade Hongkong the British had a 99 year lease and china had sovereignty.

You can not like that, or how reintegration was done, but it doesn't make it an invasion.

I'm not going to engage in good faith if you are going to be histrionic and disingenuous.

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone -1 points 4 days ago

who do you think is more likely to attack us, china or the usa?

if/when china invades democratic taiwan, what do you think we should do?

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 4 days ago

That is invalid framing. I do not think it is likely that china will attack us, I think the alliances we are in and hosting usa military shit makes it more likely, I think it is fairly likely (say >2% in 50 years) that we will declare war on china.

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 0 points 4 days ago

no worries 🙈

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 4 days ago

You tell me, if you're confident in your opinion it must be because you've researched it a lot and are well informed about their military posture. why would they?

Be concrete, what would they gain? How much would it cost? How long would the war be? What would the attack look like? What forces would be involved?

I think you're operating in the idealism land of china bad us good evil vs good is why war. Can you actually state your position and reasoning in material terms?

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 1 points 4 days ago

sorry no im of the belief that despite the usa being a backwards country lead by a retard, Australia culturally is far similar and closer (some would argue we are too close) to america than china

china as mildly as you’ve made them seem is still an authoritarian dictatorship, if criticising dickfingers carried the same penalty as criticising jingping lemmy would have been deleted and we’d all be dead or in jail

in terms of invasion it depends on how we respond to the invasion of taiwan, if we send a strongly worded letter then i assume we’ll largely be spared, but if we get involved i don’t know how it ends

but i would never ever underestimate the worlds second strongest army with the worlds strongest by far manufacturing capacity

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 4 days ago

ah yes, vibes based geopolitical analysis

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 1 points 3 days ago

which part do you think is most vibes

that we are culturally the same as americans

that taiwan is likely to be attacked by china

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/08/24/fresh-off-major-defense-drills-taiwan-proposes-record-military-spending/

maybe you should go tell the taiwanese to chill out?

and how hard we are targeted depends on how deeply we get involved in the defence of taiwan?

We’re not impervious, we have been hit before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Darwin

China is watching the russian invasion of ukraine and learning

[-] naevaTheRat@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 3 days ago

I love that your example of Australia being attacked is Australia being attacked because Australia declared war at the behest of another state.

[-] Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 1 points 3 days ago

ok :)

this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2026

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