Table:
| Pos. |
Team |
P |
W |
B |
PTS |
| 1 |
Wellington |
8 |
7 |
7 |
35 |
| 2 |
Tasman |
7 |
7 |
4 |
32 |
| 3 |
Taranaki |
8 |
6 |
6 |
30 |
| 4 |
BoP |
8 |
5 |
8 |
28 |
| 5 |
Hawke's Bay |
8 |
5 |
7 |
27 |
| 6 |
Canterbury |
8 |
5 |
5 |
25 |
| 7 |
Waikato |
8 |
4 |
7 |
23 |
| 8 |
Counties-Manukau |
8 |
3 |
6 |
18 |
| 9 |
North Harbour |
8 |
2 |
10 |
18 |
| 10 |
Auckland |
7 |
3 |
5 |
17 |
| 11 |
Otago |
8 |
3 |
4 |
16 |
| 12 |
Northland |
8 |
2 |
5 |
13 |
| 13 |
Southland |
8 |
2 |
4 |
12 |
| 14 |
Manawatū |
8 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
Fixtures:
27/09:
- Counties-Manukau v Wellington
28/09:
- BoP v Northland
- Hawke's Bay v Auckland
- Otago v Tasman
29/09:
- North Harbour v Canterbury
- Southland v Waikato
- Taranaki v Manawatū
2/10:
Predictions:
- Wellington 15+
- BoP 21+
- Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
- Tasman 12+
- North Harbour 6-
- Waikato 12+
- Taranaki 50+
1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)
Notes:
Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.
Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.
Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.
North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.
Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.
So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.
As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.
Just wanting to add clarity to my opinion about the knock-on call, because its interesting seeing people defend it in the reddit threads.
11.3 just say's "must not intentionally knock the ball forward"
in World Rugby's definitions (https://passport.world.rugby/laws-of-the-game/definitions/):
Forward: Towards the opposition’s dead-ball line.
Ok great, so lots of people are saying because his hands moved the ball forward initially that it is a knock-on; but in this case the law is referring to the ball, not the hands and the ball travelled backwards.
Knock-on: When a player loses possession of the ball and it goes forward, or when a player hits the ball forward with the hand or arm, or when the ball hits the hand or arm and goes forward, and the ball touches the ground or another player before the original player can catch it.
Again, to me this is clearly talking about the the direction of the ball, not the hands or the arms.
So I think people are applying the interpretation given to passing to any action involving the ball to which my opinion is that application isn't relevant here, and is only there for passing because its almost physically impossible to pass the ball backwards while on the run and nobody wants to see a game with 80 scrums for forward passes. Which if we're being pedants would actually be 80 penalties because all of those passes are clearly intentional!
So really the only question's I have left are whether its a penalty to knock a ball into touch or not; it would be if the ball had gone dead, but it didn't it bounced over the sideline instead. I'm just struggling to find law's that mention that bit thus far!
Ah, here it is:
9.7b: A player must not: Intentionally knock, place, push or throw the ball with arm or hand from the playing area.
Now that's definitely a possibility - so perhaps the refereeing team's comms were just shocking when they started talking about the direction of the hand. But does lead to adjudicating on intent rather than facts which I just really hate in general. I'm having a hard time being sure about it, he's definitely knocked the ball away from the other player, and it definitely went out of the playing area. Was he hoping to regather it? At best I can land on a maybe, but that has me going back to my feelings about reasonable expectations and what not - I dunno.