this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2023
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The dairy industry doesn't have a future. (self.newzealand)
submitted 1 year ago by evanuggetpi to c/newzealand
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So, I've been thinking about our dairy industry, and I reckon it's facing existential threats on a number of fronts. We know the environmental issues – water pollution, habitat loss, deforestation, methane and CO2 emissions. Animal welfare is also an issue, for example the ethical treatment of male calves.

And then there's tech. Lab-grown milk protein is a thing now, and plant-based dairy is seeing big gains. Fonterra's even investing into lab-grown milk proteins. See https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/130551099/labmade-milk-getting-the-creaminess-without-the-climate-pollution for other companies in NZ making lab-grown milk. When China realises mass production of casein in labs, demand for our milk powder will... evaporate. And that milk powder, is, what, 95% of the demand?

I don't see how we can just 'adapt' dairy farming. These aren't small problems, they're insurmountable challenges. And those pressures are only going to increase.

If these threats are unlikely to be mitigated, the focus must shift towards planning how to downscale dairy farming in a responsible way. Industries have come and gone before ( whaling, anyone? ). Anyone got some thoughts on this? What will NZ look like in 20 years?

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[–] absGeekNZ 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

One way to look at this is that cows are a technology.

The goal is not the tech itself, but what it gives us, in this case milk. Just like any other technology, it will be supplanted when a new, better technology comes along.

Once a better way of achieving the goal arrives the transition to the new tech will be swift and devastating. Almost no one in the industry will see the change coming until it has already started; at which point it will be far too late. See:

  • Audio tape -> CD -> mp3 player -> phones/streaming
  • film camera -> digital camera -> cellphone camera
  • horse and cart -> truck
  • horse -> car.

I remember having this conversation with a farmer 10 years ago, looking at the growth of bio-tech and the potential to genetically engineer; say yeast to produce dairy proteins; I knew it would only be a matter of time before the whole dairy industry would collapse.

[–] flambonkscious@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 year ago

What's bat shit crazy is this exact thing happened with the wool market back in the 80s(?), and the collective doofus' just doubled down on the next single product and are repeating it all over again!

It's gonna really hurt when it does bite them, but I've got no sympathy for they're laziness.