Berlin’s hurried shift to actively defending against hybrid threats shows the danger of cumulative under-reaction to hostile state-backed activity. Underreaction can leave democracies more vulnerable to sustained coercion, interference and sabotage, ultimately making them preferred targets.
This is a warning for Indo-Pacific countries, which confront similar hostile activities but lack agreed frameworks, common terminology and shared threat assessments. Germany’s experience shows the need for stronger national resilience, clearer attribution thresholds, wider response options and expected action from partners.
The challenge is to build credible deterrence and regional mechanisms before hostile activity becomes normalised.
In August, three drones carrying explosives were found at Halle airport in Leipzig, a major hub for military supplies to Ukraine. A month later, the German government concluded that Russia was responsible, assessing that the operation bore the hallmarks of Moscow’s hybrid playbook seen in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
What followed was the familiar European script: Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador, closed Russia’s consulate-general in Bonn and terminated the lease of the Russian cultural centre in Berlin. Germany also said it would seek additional EU sanctions, including tighter travel controls for Russian nationals and stronger action against the shadow fleet.
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Publicly identifying attackers is the first step in signalling that coercive behaviour will not go unnoticed or unanswered. The annual threat assessment from the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation contributes to this.
Democracies need credible options in-between inaction and military escalation. These could include exposing proxy networks, pursuing criminal prosecutions and coordinating sector-specific responses in areas such as cyber, infrastructure security and economic coercion. Responses need not mirror the initial attack, but they should raise the cost of continued hostile activity while remaining lawful and proportionate.
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I might be cynical, but all these news about tiny attacks without any real damage might be just as well fabricated to manufacture consent for raising military budgets and even start a military intervention in Russia. I don't believe propaganda from any side. Yes, I know, Russia is evil, or so the propaganda says. But so is every other empire.
I'd rather not go to war because someone's nephew's friend's aunt is assumed to have claimed evil Russians probably peed in her front garden. I'd want to at least see the puddle and make sure it's really Russian piss before supporting any sort of aggression.
So dear aunts with piss in your gardens, please come forward and show me the stains, else I will just try to continue with my everyday business.