Berlin’s hurried shift to actively defending against hybrid threats shows the danger of cumulative under-reaction to hostile state-backed activity. Underreaction can leave democracies more vulnerable to sustained coercion, interference and sabotage, ultimately making them preferred targets.
This is a warning for Indo-Pacific countries, which confront similar hostile activities but lack agreed frameworks, common terminology and shared threat assessments. Germany’s experience shows the need for stronger national resilience, clearer attribution thresholds, wider response options and expected action from partners.
The challenge is to build credible deterrence and regional mechanisms before hostile activity becomes normalised.
In August, three drones carrying explosives were found at Halle airport in Leipzig, a major hub for military supplies to Ukraine. A month later, the German government concluded that Russia was responsible, assessing that the operation bore the hallmarks of Moscow’s hybrid playbook seen in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
What followed was the familiar European script: Berlin summoned the Russian ambassador, closed Russia’s consulate-general in Bonn and terminated the lease of the Russian cultural centre in Berlin. Germany also said it would seek additional EU sanctions, including tighter travel controls for Russian nationals and stronger action against the shadow fleet.
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Publicly identifying attackers is the first step in signalling that coercive behaviour will not go unnoticed or unanswered. The annual threat assessment from the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation contributes to this.
Democracies need credible options in-between inaction and military escalation. These could include exposing proxy networks, pursuing criminal prosecutions and coordinating sector-specific responses in areas such as cyber, infrastructure security and economic coercion. Responses need not mirror the initial attack, but they should raise the cost of continued hostile activity while remaining lawful and proportionate.
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