17
Stubsack: weekly thread for sneers not worth an entire post, week ending 8th November 2026 (awful.systems)
submitted 6 days ago by BlueMonday1984@awful.systems to c/techtakes@awful.systems
181 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Welcome to November, and welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful you’ll near-instantly regret.

Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.

If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cut’n’paste it into its own post — there’s no quota for posting and the bar really isn’t that high.

The post Xitter web has spawned soo many “esoteric” right wing freaks, but there’s no appropriate sneer-space for them. I’m talking redscare-ish, reality challenged “culture critics” who write about everything but understand nothing. I’m talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. They’re inescapable at this point, yet I don’t see them mocked (as much as they should be)

Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldn’t be surgeons because they didn’t believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I can’t escape them, I would love to sneer at them.

(Credit and/or blame to David Gerard for starting this.)

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[-] lurker@awful.systems 7 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

r/singularity is coping too

Very conveniently cropped out the 46% accuracy on their Mid 2026 China predictions. And the graph that shows every single data point is below AI 2027.

(the tweet’s timestap reads August, which makes this even funnier)

[-] lurker@awful.systems 9 points 2 days ago

Found another stellar AI 2027 take

” They don’t go through scenarios where AI doesn’t happen because they are unrealistic given what we know now, and even if that did happen somehow, it’s just business as usual in that case? So they don’t have any commentary to give.”

Yeah I’m sure the massive tech stock selloff and Big Tech allying themselves with the now widely despised and crumbling MAGA party and Anthropic’s IPO becoming shakier and shakier and all those voters saying data centred and tech were key issues that lead to them voting and all those anti-data centre bills being approved except one means that AI not being big is totally unrealistic

[-] Architeuthis@awful.systems 12 points 2 days ago

The comment got so downvoted reddit now autocollapses it when you open the page. /r/BetterOffline posters seem to be good people:

Icy-Recognition-7453 wrote

My brother in Christ, it is dreamed-up rubbish. It comes from an offshoot of EA/Rationalist thinking where the foundational documents are Terminator 3 and a Harry Potter fanfic written by an "AI researcher" who never went to high school. The pay-off of the "good" scenario is you get to live as an emulated human on AI God's hard drive.

[-] rhamph@awful.systems 9 points 2 days ago

Credit to the tweeter behind the original screenshot, at least they call AI 2027 a ‘blog’, and not e.g. a ‘paper’ like at least one of the reddit commenters does.

[-] lurker@awful.systems 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Shockingly the comments are calling out that there’s no way the 30% stock market rise is happening, among other things, but to single out a specific comment:

“RSI in 2026 isn't predicted by that forecast. They predict AI-assisted speedups of progress. We are currently observing that, in fact a little ahead of schedule. According to METR's best guess, we have the level of speedup now that AI 2027 had expected in Mar 2027. It isn't "misleading" for a model to present things you consider boring or incremental and then be scored as correct when the boring or incremental things happen. That's just being right”

Afaik this is a lie? METR’s time horizons graph still hasn’t updated past Claude Mythos, unless this comment is referring to another piece of METR data that I don’t know about.

Edit: quickly looked it up, they’re probably referring to this

Edit 2: yeah, I think this comment is some baloney. AI 2027’s coding ability in March 2027 is listed at 2.3x (and goes up to sped up by 30x). METR estimates Anthropic has been growing at roughly 1.9-2x the rate they were going at March 2024-Oct. 2025 (though they outright state that the estimate is given with high uncertainty)

Edit 3: BetterOffline post better explains why this is bullshit

[-] lurker@awful.systems 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

comment chain so good it must be seen to be believed

this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2026
17 points (94.7% liked)

TechTakes

2779 readers
344 users here now

Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.

This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.

For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community

founded 3 years ago
MODERATORS
dgerard@awful.systems