this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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I think I read Wagner forces number about 25,000? Can anyone contextualize how big a headache this will be for Russia?
Considering that they needed Wagner to take over many areas in Ukraine and their military couldn't do it, it'll be a huge headache.
It also destroys Putin's reputation of being in full charge. Think about the impact on the public, Putin has total informational control over Russia and this fucks him over.
Remember, they used to say that Wagner's head would be cut off quickly if they ever "think" of going against Putin and there you go, it's all BS.
I'm skeptical that this will affect his reputation, it's just too easy to spin this for a propaganda-captive population so deep in the hole. But it would be great if it did.
The tactical impact seems more promising to me, but I'm also woefully uninformed so what do I know lol.
"CNN has tracked Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Ukraine and Syria. Over the years they have developed a particularly gruesome reputation and have been linked to various human rights abuses."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/23/europe/wagner-prigozhin-criminal-case-explainer-intl/index.html
It sounds like Prigohzin could be a big headache for Putin.
If he deposes Putin he could be a big headache for us all. There are already reports of Wagner seizing nuclear weapons facilities in Russia.
Add to that a brigade (2,000-8,000) of Russian special forces that defected. Those guys are probably worth 2-3 national guardsman.
Edit: allegedly
Question is, is it true?
Hard to tell. What is abundantly clear is that they are meeting little to no resistance. Otherwise they would have never gotten this far. Whether troops really are joining them I can't confirm. It's all coming in very rapidly from sources I have no experience with.
I'm going to update my previous comment to add "allegedly."
There have been a bunch of mixed reports, I think it's tough to say exactly what's true. I saw one person suggesting that given Wagner's numbers in Africa it's likely there's really only half that number there. But there have also been reports of Russian military and intelligence personnel switched to support Wagner.
As someone else said, I think for most people it's just a matter of wait and see what shakes out.
Interesting. So sounds like this could land anywhere from fizzling out to full-on coup, depending on still-unknown variables like the true state of Putin's support within his own ranks.
@ConstableJelly @alyaza Well, considering how many tank(s?) were at Putin's Victory Day parade, I think we have our answer. 😁