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Well that was... weird.

I saw several alleged videos of russian frontline units pledging their support for Prigozhin. Combine that with how little resistance wagner faced and Putin might have realized how weak his position is and given in to replacing MOD staff. Not a good look the same day he declared Prigozhin a traitor and promised punishment.

Trading the long-term stability for the short-term. Because now every aspiring russian warlord know that if you don't like something about the state, all you need is just a big enough private army to bully the kremlin, lol.

2021: "The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in the world."
2022: "The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Ukraine."
2023: "The Russian Empire has the second strongest army in Russia."

Trying to constantly remind myself that none of us are immune to propaganda, and that it would be really easy for this scenario to be misrepresented as a clean-sweep against the Russian military. Wagner's def gonna cause serious problems but I'd frankly be shocked if this ended with a successful coup or any meaningful change (tho I hope I'm wrong)

For context: I'm Estonian. Our nation has a great deal of history with Russian imperialism, under both tsarist and soviet rules. Even Putin has threatened us before. So clearly I'm not a supporter of the Russian regime or their imperialistic ambitions. However, I'm going to present an unpopular opinion.

The balkanization of Russia, if it were to happen, would not be beneficial in the long run. At least not for the people at large.

Yes, the big western cities would be a lot more liberal and open to democracy than the vast countryside. However, we need to consider the fact that different Russian oblasts have VAST differences in economic power. The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions. Not that these regions are getting a lot of attention now, but at least under a different regime for the current Russian nation as it is, it'd be possible to improve infrastructure, education, industry, etc. for towns in remote oblasts.

And leaving those people farther and farther behind, will cause new unrests. And definitely there would be military dictatorships who promise better lives, etc.

Therefore, a division of Russia into small states might actually cause more issues in the long run. Not that I'm a fan of it staying intact either.

It's a choice between two evils of unknown magnitude, the only good thing is that none of us are the ones making that choice so we don't have to live with it on our consciences.

Beau has three videos out on it already. He's really good for context on military things.

Now hearing from Al Jazeera news and NYT that Prigozhin has agreed to order his Wagner troops back to their bases. What in the hell is going on?

My pet hypothesis is that Putin and Prigozhin were engaging in a bit of play acting to stage Wagner troops for an action against Ukraine (Prigozhin benefits) and illustrate the legal and financial measures that Putin will take against powerful dissenters (Putin benefits).

With 25k troops, there's simply no way Wagner could have succeeded in a coup. The regular army is better equipped and could have severed their supply lines with minimal effort, starving the coup with minimal bloodshed. They could have done this in their own interests, and not necessarily in defense of Putin.

Considering how swiftly Wagner's offices were raided and their assets seized, this affair makes more sense as a morality tale to caution antsy oligarchs than as a military action.

Swan Lake

If Moscow stations start playing this, it's a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we'd see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don't think he'll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we'll have a pretty good idea who's left standing.

Just saw on the news that Wagner is turning around after Lukashenko got involved?

Just woke up, read the Post's feed, then The Economist's coverage, and I can safely say I have no idea what's happening. Suffice to say, I'm not grabbing popcorn yet.

tl;dr: A counter-terrorist operation has been launched in several Russian regions, as well as in Moscow as preparations are being made for the capital’s siege by the Wagner Group forces that rebelled against Russia’s top military command - Ukraine’s defense intelligence,

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3727239-prigozhins-mutiny-in-russia-intelligence-update.html

Ukraine has gotten back territory from the Russians they haven’t had since 2014!

https://hachyderm.io/@mariyadelano/110600106594968334

Civil war broke out, some dude close to Putin offended Putin and Putin bombed his friend, friend didn't like and started a coupe, civil joined in and thus making it a civil war. Putin friends is a military dude that still want to invade Ukraina after the civil war.

This is what my understanding is, someone please correct me.

I think I read Wagner forces number about 25,000? Can anyone contextualize how big a headache this will be for Russia?

Wagner troops taking over nuclear facility

https://hachyderm.io/@mariyadelano/110600171242124978

according to The Telegraph, Russia may end up disintegrating entirely over this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/24/russia-verge-collapse-elites-try-escape-wagner-coup/

So reading twitter...

It seems much of the "Ammunition shortage" Prigozhin was loudly complaining about was stock pilling. Similarly much of Wagnar was pulled out of Ukraine to rebuild.

There have been suggestions Prigozhin was planning to launch an attack on Sunday but the Russian MoD attacked a Wagner site forcing him to launch a day early.

One tweet suggested Wagner soliders had been calling family all day (e.g. before a big operation).

Seizing Rostok Von Don was a clever initial play, since its a major logistics hub. This allowed him to arm his troops and provides a base if the coup fails.

It seems the South Military District gave up without a fight, with soliders surrendering.

Prigozhin has sent a shock force to Moscow, its bypassing major cities and trying to get there ASAP. There is a belief senior Kremlin officials will abandon ship.

Various helicopters are attacking the shock force but it seems Wagner are using air defence. Various MI-8, KA-52 and a ll-s2 have been shown destroyed.

The Tik Tok bigrade are trying to attack Rostok, considering they aren't "true Russians" and were used as barrier troops, this doesn't seem to be going down well. They are also stripping Donetsk of defenders to do this.