March quarter data from Stats NZ showed an increase in the unemployment rate, from 4 percent in December to 4.3 percent. It said 134,000 people were now unemployed.

If 134k is 4.3% then 4% is about 125k people. So 9k people lost their jobs since December and another 26k to go?

Is this the difference in roles or the total redundancies (a certain percentage of people made redundant will go into a new role, some of which would not have had someone in it before)?

Maybe they expect a peak of about 150k people unemployed?

Sounds like they expect it to peak at about 4.8% if my maths is right? Historically, that's still pretty low.

He said the number of people on the JobSeeker benefit had been trending higher since the start of 2023. In March there were 187,986 people receiving this benefit, up from 131,721 in March 2019 and 168,498 last year.

I get lost with the new benefits. Are the 187k people on Jobseeker not all considered "unemployed"? Is this a case of some people with part time work (underemployed) being counted in one but not the other?

[–] BalpeenHammer 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

The article says "will be unemployed" meaning they are going to get fired or laid off or whatever the term they are using these days.

Sounds like they expect it to peak at about 4.8% if my maths is right? Historically, that’s still pretty low.

I don't know. Usually mass layoffs have carry over to the rest of the economy. All the businesses serving those government employees are probably also going to downsize somewhat. Some may even go out of business who knows.

I get lost with the new benefits. Are the 187k people on Jobseeker not all considered “unemployed”?

Most likely not everybody who is unemployed is getting a benefit so the number unemployed should be higher than those seeking jobseeker benefits.

[–] Dave 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

I don’t know. Usually mass layoffs have carry over to the rest of the economy. All the businesses serving those government employees are probably also going to downsize somewhat. Some may even go out of business who knows.

But if these are in addition to the 26k, then the 26k wouldn't be the peak?

Most likely not everybody who is unemployed is getting a benefit so the number unemployed should be higher than those seeking jobseeker benefits.

The article says in March 134k people are unemployed and 187k people are on the Jobseeker benefit.

Note that "unemployed" isn't everyone who doesn't have a job, you have to be looking for work to be considered. So for example, you generally don't count a stay-at-home Dad whose partner works to support the family.

[–] TagMeInSkipIGotThis 2 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Yeah if 26k are dropped from the public service then there will definitely be businesses that supply the public sector that will also downsize as a result. Then there's the indirect impact - particularly in Wellington - of fewer public services spending money with local businesses that will then also cause a contraction in their profits.

[–] Dave 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

But the article doesn't say 26k public service workers, it says 26k people total. So the 26k forecast must surely include flow on impacts of the 4k+ public service jobs lost?

[–] TagMeInSkipIGotThis 2 points 6 months ago

Oh right, sorry I didn't catch that part.

I guess its hard to know - because 26k probably includes people made redundant as part of the general downturn triggered by the reserve bank.

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