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translation: There are people conjuring thoughts like "I've seen one too many brown people".
Also unsurprising where the sentiment is coming from:
srcs:
More imbecility (from the same src):
Argentina as usual being two racists in a trenchcoat pretending to be white
How do people in Japan think that 10% of the population is foreign!?
I guess Argentina makes a bit more sense - except that not many people are trying to get to Argentina. That sounds like Argentina though.
Argentina have a lot of immigration from Perú, Bolivia and Paraguay, but the important part, I think, is that Milei campaign were pretty much "illegal immigrants are destroying our country" and proposing a lot of shit that already exists, like background checks to get work and studying permits.
A lot is apparently not that many, and Argentina doesn't need migrants to destroy everything, the extremely racist middle class and other European migrants already did that.
I assume it's the same in most areas - humans are really susceptible to sampling bias and if you live in an urban area, you're going to see a higher number of immigrants or foreigners. Plus, in Japan specifically, there's currently a big backlash against tourists fucking with people's daily routines, so I'm sure people mentally think there must be hordes of foreigners constantly invading the country.
Interesting that Argentina has the largest disparity here, actually. I would have expected it to be the US, given the rhetoric.
These polls tend to fumble their own methods, by trusting people to read definitions. They should be asking directly: how many people in your country were born in another country? The word "immigrant" literally means that... but that's not the only meaning people envision, when they hear that word. To some extent you are always measuring that disconnect.
On the other hand, what fucking lunatics think 22% of America is Muslim?
how do people in the US think Muslim folk make up 22% of the population!? My guess was like 4-5% and I still overshot by a lot.
I think the issue is that most people live in cities, where populations tend to me more diverse. Then most polls probably also end up disproportionately asking cityfolk. So the polls ask people who live in areas with disproportionate numbers of immigrants (relative to non-urban parts of the country), and they forget how many non-immigrants are outside the cities.
Swiss: about a third?
Real: 40%
Who are all the people immigrating to Australia?
Malaysians, Chinese, indians, I've even met a couple from Timor
It's also a common destination for upper middle class families on latinamerica, because you can pay in doing an MBA and getting a job.
I don't agree, I see Latin American people in lower ranks but not often and never met one in management position besides myself. And I can spot them from big distance and even separate them from Philippinos who tend to have the same last names.
| Skilled | Family | Humanitarian | All permanent migrants(b) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 356,100 | China (c) | 133,000 | Iraq | 62,400 | India | 439,700 |
| 2 | England | 197,300 | India | 81,900 | Afghanistan | 30,700 | China (c) | 334,900 |
| 3 | China (c) | 196,500 | England | 79,700 | Myanmar | 21,100 | England | 277,500 |
| 4 | Philippines | 103,200 | Philippines | 64,000 | Syria | 20,900 | Philippines | 167,400 |
| 5 | South Africa | 101,300 | Vietnam | 61,500 | Iran | 17,300 | South Africa | 118,200 |
| 6 | Australia (d) | 65,300 | Thailand | 34,400 | Sudan | 12,300 | Vietnam | 82,400 |
| 7 | Malaysia | 52,000 | United States of America | 27,300 | South Sudan | 7,000 | Australia (d) | 75,900 |
| 8 | Sri Lanka | 48,300 | Indonesia | 21,000 | Pakistan | 6,600 | Iraq | 72,700 |
| 9 | Korea, Republic of (South) | 40,700 | Afghanistan | 18,900 | Thailand | 5,800 | Malaysia | 69,200 |
| 10 | Pakistan | 39,000 | Korea, Republic of (South) | 18,700 | Ethiopia | 5,700 | Sri Lanka | 67,700 |
The above is from https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/permanent-migrants-australia/2021
Looks like all the British are a problem
We've got people from all the continents, but mostly Asia.
Earlier this year at work each team put out a flag for each team member, and across like 100 flags there was surprisingly little repetition besides predictably China and India. Australia was maybe in 5th place.
My team has 15 people and we joked that our only Australian was a diversity hire.
We do software development in case you didn't guess yet.
Japan what the hell? When I'm there I usually go hours without seeing another white person, depending on where I'm at.
They would have immigrants primarily from other parts of asia most likely
They get a lot of workers from places like Indonesia
What share of the population do you think are immigrants?
Where does “I don’t care” register?
Yeah, same here, zero fucks given, they're people, let them move where they want. The upside, if I dont like it I can fuck off.
We have cities in germany where "5.5%" really doesn't paint the right picture. I've recently been to one where most shops had signs i can't read and more muslims than i saw in Turkey or elsewhere. Seeing or hearing (a) german was a rare exception. And this is really no exaggeration.
Of course if you take all the rural areas into the equation, where usually very few are, you might see the 5% in toto, but in the cities and especially the cores? No way.
Apart from a couple of countries, the percentages are small. The graph is distorted as it's not showing the full 100%
Looks like most people, in most countries, are pretty close to accurate.
Alternative view (directly from the source):
IMO being off by around 10% or more is still quite the leap.
10% off isn't bad for a casual onlooker at their community. That's 90% accurate.
Right, but those estimates aren't 10% off, but closer to at least 10 percentage points off – percent and percentage points are not the same thing.
Even Australia is ~23% off, and eg. Germany is 42% off, the US is 120% off, UK is 57% off, and eg. Poland is a whopping 650% off
People don't give precise percentages though when surveyed. They might round to typical fractions like 1/4, 1/3, or they might round to 10 or 20 percent.
Nobody is saying "hmm, I estimate that it would be approximately 37 percent".
Of course the wisdom of the crowd does wonders for smoothing those coarse estimates, but still, if the crowd is +/- 10 of the real percentage value, I'd say they're pretty much on the money.
Anyway, Poland, wtf.
People don’t give precise percentages though when surveyed. They might round to typical fractions like 1/4, 1/3, or they might round to 10 or 20 percent.
Nobody is saying “hmm, I estimate that it would be approximately 37 percent”.
Of course the wisdom of the crowd does wonders for smoothing those coarse estimates, but still, if the crowd is +/- 10 of the real percentage value, I’d say they’re pretty much on the money.
Oh yes absolutely, people would definitely just "eyeball" their estimate and the percentages we see in the graphs are population (well, sample) level averages, but I'd still say that the differences between these average estimates and actual reality are by and large much worse that "on the money". To illustrate, if the estimate for some country was eg. 30% and the real proportion 40%, the relative error – off by a factor of 1.33 – would be smaller than if the estimate is 12% and the real value 2% – off by a factor of 6 – even though both have a 10 point error.
So eg Poles' and Argentinians' estimates are both 12 percentage points off, but because Poland's immigrant population is smaller that means that they overestimated its real size by 650% and so their estimate was 7.5x higher, but Argentinians were "only" off by 460% / 5.6x. 'Strayans were off by 7 points, but their relative error was only around 23%, which is still almost a 1/4 error and their estimate looks like it was the best out of these. The average global error was 100%, so on average people think there's 2x as many immigrants as there actually are, and characterizing that as "pretty much on the money" is, well, maybe a bit generous
Yeah as much as I love to call people out for their racist bullshit, the results are surprisingly close to the mark. I was expecting the gap to be much wider. At least for the English speaking countries.
who in australia thinks we have 20% muslims? we probably dont even have 20% christians
Pauline Hanson voters ?
🤮
Interesting that Canada wasn't included (at about 20%). Wonder how/why they picked those countries.
This does not count Ukrainians for Poland though, even for 2022 before war there were much more of them than 2%, possibly as many as 3 million and that went up in years included here.
Yep, that's true, the latest census was from 2021, and the figure was 3.69%.
Probably the figures weren't available to Ipsos at the time, despite the publishing date :/? Idk..
That's different question though on the census, about nationality of Polish citizens. Most of numbers of minorities with citizenship in Poland are Polish minorities who were born in Poland. Like Silesians who are not even officially considered minority and still half million of them wrote that in (in reality there's at probably around a million of them since once the census bureau included them despite government not wanted to admit them at all). And even let's say Polish Germans, Belorussians and Ukrainians (at least those 80000 mentioned in this census) are also living here for generations due to how frequently borders changed in last two centuries.
Polish state is also relentlessly engaging in polonisation of minorities since 1918.