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EU formally approves €90bn Ukraine loan and 20th sanctions package against Russia (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 3 months ago by perestroika@slrpnk.net to c/world@lemmy.world

44 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Speaking later, von der Leyen said she thought it would be possible to disburse the first tranche of the €45bn funding planned for 2026 in this quarter, meaning by the end of June. The first payment, she indicated, would fund Ukraine’s domestic drone production – “drones from Ukraine for Ukraine”.

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[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 45 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (3 children)

IMHO, with this sum, Ukraine can finance enough drone production to saturate and overwhelm Russia's air defense regularly, and regularly bomb industries which the Russian war effort relies on, with enough drones to disable them.

It is unlikely that Russia will stop producing drones and doing the same, but starting from this summer, it will take damage to strategically important places on a weekly basis, and might run out of money to finance things.

If one looks at polls from "levada.ru", Putin's popularity is already dropping at a rapid rate for some months. Hopefully this will accelerate.

The remaining question is: how exactly will the war end? Hopefully with negotiations, but other scenarios are possible. It could be economic crisis, strikes and protests in Russia. Or a coup. But it could also be escalation to weapons of mass destruction. The role of Ukraine's allies should be to deter Russia from using that last option.

[–] WanderingThoughts@europe.pub 20 points 3 months ago

Ukraine can finance enough drone production to saturate and overwhelm Russia’s air defense regularly, and regularly bomb industries which the Russian war effort relies on, with enough drones to disable them.

That's already happening. The money means Ukraine can continue for a long time and Russia can't simply wait them out.

[–] k0e3@lemmy.ca 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I'm wondering the same. What does it matter if his popularity drops? Wouldn't it just continue until he is dead or there's a wave of massive, violent strikes and protests — large enough for the ruling class to fear for their lives?

[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 4 points 3 months ago

A drop in popularity would be a strong incentive to negotiate a solution, because they aren't fools.

If propaganda is no longer working and critical thresholds are passed ("the fridge defeats the TV") and government workers feel that status no longer protects them, then a wave of protest can't be far. When it comes to protest, sadly it will be violent in Russia - because previous protest has been violently dealt with.

Putin and his elite will definitely want to avoid that.

[+] EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world -66 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (7 children)

The best way to deter Russia from using Nukes would be to stop funding Ukraine, stop saddling them with unpayable debt, and stop using them to threaten Russia. Let’s say Ukraine pushes Russia over the edge by damaging civilian infrastructure, then what? Ukraine gets nuked and they can’t even pay the interest on their loans.

Nobody is going to nuke Russia back for nuking Ukraine. It’s been over for them on the ground for a while. Now we’re testing drones and making Ukraine pay for the weapons project by taking out debt. In a few years there may not be a Ukraine, just a crater where it used to be.

[–] nao@sh.itjust.works 24 points 3 months ago (1 children)

If you go damage someone's infrastructure, shouldn't you expect your infrastructure to get damaged in return?

[–] HuudaHarkiten@piefed.social 20 points 3 months ago

The problem with your moronic hypotheticals is that Ukraine focuses on military and oil infra, they are not like russia and aiming at civilian infra.

And how about we let Ukraine decide what they want to do. If they want to keep fighting, we will support them. If they want to surrender, we will have to support them.

I recommend you take a history lesson before you suggest stupid shit like we appeasing genocidal dictators. I'm disappointed to know that theres stupid fucks in Lemmy as well. I guess its impossible to escape you guys.

[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 12 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

unpayable debt,

To be paid by Russia from reparations. If reparations won't be obtained, Ukraine won't have to repay this.

As for the last point, I believe Russia has been repeatedly assured, gently and behind the scenes, that if forbidden weapons are used, then some flavour of doomsday will come. Now the assurance only depends too heavily on French and UK systems, since the US is suffering from mad president syndrome.

The reassuring thing is that Ukraine has worn Russian air defense so thin during the years, that an assurance from France and UK is now credible. The mistake of invading Ukraine has considerably weakened Russia's deterrents, and infiltration by Ukraine has limited Russia's ability to achieve surprise.

[–] Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world 4 points 3 months ago

Remember it was Russia who invaded Ukraine and not the other way around. Imagine being so weak to start a war and then start crying when you realise that you don't have the ability to win the war.

Russia won't use nukes here anyway because China will not understand any circumstances let them. If Russia uses nukes in Ukraine, Taiwan will have nukes in 2 weeks time. China does not want this. Russia is now completely dependent on China to keep their economy going they will not defy their masters and risk economic ruin.

[–] Lirton@lemmy.today 4 points 3 months ago

It doesn't work this way.

[–] Danquebec@sh.itjust.works 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

So, we should just let the nuclear powers take over the other countries then?

[–] EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world -2 points 3 months ago

In the case of Ukraine? Yes. The Ukrainians don’t want democracy or peace.

[–] TheparishofChigwell@sh.itjust.works 0 points 3 months ago

Imagine giving up before trying to survive

Though the word bufferstate should forever be a shameful word used with reluctance there is enough reason to believe retaliation is imminent when an action has direct consequences on the nations within the EU already

[–] gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works 40 points 3 months ago (1 children)

And absolutely nothing bad happened to Hungary as a result. See how easy that was?

[–] MrFinnbean@lemmy.world 1 points 3 months ago

Well they got what they wanted and Russian Oil Flows Again through the Druzhba Pipeline...

[–] TigerAce@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 3 months ago

Suck it Orban!

[–] Tolc@lemmy.world 12 points 3 months ago (1 children)

hope they sanction israel with the same intensity

[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 8 points 3 months ago

One can hope, but sadly, there is a difference in EU responses. There is no consensus and nothing gets done. :o

[–] panthera_@lemmy.today 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Putin will never agree to pay reparations. The EU should simply be happy that the money is being used to stop Russian aggression. Hopefully that's enough. If not, Europe would have to send in troops. Candidates for sending in troops are Britain and France. Too many European countries can't send in troops because Putin would complain that Russia is being overwhelmed and must go nuclear.

[–] Gsus4@mander.xyz 9 points 3 months ago

They dont have to go nuclear, they can just hop back on their side of the border and build a huge wall, hey, we'll even help them build it from the opposite side so that we'll never have to deal with their spilling madness again.

[–] lithiumground@lemmy.world 2 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Is it loan or donation ? Dont conflate

[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 6 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Direct from the EU:

The loans will become repayable only once Russia has paid war reparations to Ukraine.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/04/23/council-finalises-90-billion-support-loan-to-ukraine/

Until then, it's a donation.

[–] lithiumground@lemmy.world 1 points 3 months ago

You should not forget that , Russia will prefer to use nuclear weapons but will still not pay. dont you know ,pitbull russia

[+] DupaCycki@lemmy.world -8 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I think the sole fact that there have been 20 sanction packages means the sanctions are weak and aren't achieving their goal.

[–] Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

The only people who expected the sanctions to work instantly are people with shit for brains or pro Russian shills.

The rest of us understand that these things take time to work, especially when the sanctioned country is sitting on a cash pile of 300 or so billion. This money has now run out and we are starting to see the effects, the Russian economy has been contracting in the latest official reports from Russia. If the official Russian reports are admitting something is wrong it is likely far worse in reality.

[–] DupaCycki@lemmy.world -4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I feel like we're missing a lot of variants between 'all possible sanctions instantly' and '20 packages of sanctions over 4 years'.

[–] Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world 4 points 3 months ago

Seriously buddy, do you actually have a point or just not understand what is happening?

If all sanctions are leveled at once there is no room for escalation, you have already played all of your cards. Maximum sanctions initially would have caused far more damage to the EU economy and pain to EU citizens.

If you have been paying attention to the cat and mouse nature of the sanctions and Russian evasion of the sanctions you would understand that the additional packages of sanctions were designed to block routes that Russia uses to evade sanctions that weren't initially obvious. Russia has been quite creative in its complex systems of evasion that required additional sanctions to be levied.

[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Evasion is a reality. Every time they enact another sanctions package, there are new lists of persons and companies, and yes, they are not very effective. But life without them would be much worse.

In the current sanctions package: no selling of fancy machine tools into Kyrgyzstan. Because (not a surprise) it turns out that companies from there resell those to Russia.