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If Treasury and RBNZ are correct that the low point of this economic cycle will occur this year, then people will feel like things are improving by election time next year. The public has a very short memory so I have zero confidence that they will vote them out for making the downturn worse.
National will campaign hard on how it’s getting better and the public will eat it up because they’re the party of FiScAl ReSpOnSiBiLiTy
Realistically, polls this far out from the election aren't worth much. I wouldn't count on them being single term.
I mean, it's not conclusive, but it's also a rapid change.
Oh don't get me wrong, it definitely signals a whole lot of regret in the voting population.
It also shows Labour are getting their act together somewhat, in my view. The comments I've seen lately from Hipkins seem to show they know where they went wrong.
Less racial separatism, more helping the working class.
such a sharp change
It's part of a global pattern. All over the world, political parties who were incumbent in the covid aftermath were mostly voted out by 2024. Most reportage attributes it to reactions to economic conditions caused by covid.
We are also seeing a rise in populism, which can be fickle.
Please not the greens.
Given the absolute nightmare they've had recently with candidates embarrassing themselves, I didn't expect to see them doing so well.
I think they will lose a lot of votes to Labour once they start releasing policy though.
