Id be very wary about poll results. They are often very bias and used to push some narative, looking at you "Tax payer union". Just look at the most recent Australian election, every poll had the Libnats and Labor neck and neck, then the actual results come in and the Libnats crumble like a marbel quary in India during a downpour. Typicaly NZ votes for the established parties and The Oppertunities Party, i dont think, has really showen us the stability Kiwis look for in a vote.

National has decided to publicly anounce that they wont partner with Oppertunity because Luxon is terrified that Oppertunities will siphon voters away from National. He is announcing that a vote for Oppertunities is not a vote for National. On the day i rekon Luxon would jump at the chance to partner with Oppertunities.

Its really interesting because i also feel that the whole National, NZ First and Act menagerie is showing itself to be highly unstable with its current and past bickering.

[–] absGeekNZ 4 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

Have you seen KiwiPolls? their methodology is quite good and is effectively a rolling poll of polls.

Opportunity are slowly gaining; looks like >5% is going to be normal in the next month or so.

The current coalition was strained from day 1, the way NZF and Act treated National (due to Luxon's inexperience) during negotiations was terrible.