Id be very wary about poll results. They are often very bias and used to push some narative, looking at you "Tax payer union". Just look at the most recent Australian election, every poll had the Libnats and Labor neck and neck, then the actual results come in and the Libnats crumble like a marbel quary in India during a downpour. Typicaly NZ votes for the established parties and The Oppertunities Party, i dont think, has really showen us the stability Kiwis look for in a vote.
National has decided to publicly anounce that they wont partner with Oppertunity because Luxon is terrified that Oppertunities will siphon voters away from National. He is announcing that a vote for Oppertunities is not a vote for National. On the day i rekon Luxon would jump at the chance to partner with Oppertunities.
Its really interesting because i also feel that the whole National, NZ First and Act menagerie is showing itself to be highly unstable with its current and past bickering.