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Harry Mowbray calls Coatesville mansion summit to get rid of MMP
(www.rnz.co.nz)
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this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2026
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It wasn't smart when TPM made it official strategy; I was wrong thinking it wouldn't matter. I basically said that they were just formalizing an existing practice that their electorate already did.
It was well known that a lot of TMP supporters split their vote; but they still got 2-3% of the party vote. Meaning the overhang they caused was usually 1-3 seats. Not a big deal in a 120-123 seat system, and I don't recall that their overhang ever changing the result of the election.
But as soon as they made it official strategy; the right had social license to pursue the same; but with way more money and reach. I'm sure the right were already thinking about doing this type of election-engineering; but the social license afforded to them by TPM's action means that there has been almost no public backlash from this.
I was wrong, it was a big deal; overhang engineering has opened the flood gates; next election it will be much worse, unless we can get a fix in this term!
Yeah agreed, the flood gates are open now and we need to stem it or elections will become less democratic, and this is true even if the left starts vote splitting as well to balance it.
It could get really ridiculous; there is a theoretical maximum of 78 overhand seats. 71 from main electorates and 7 from Maori electorates.
Obviously this is super unlikely; but if Nat/Lab said give all of your party vote so X and just give us electorate vote; some big overhang numbers could eventuate.
Is it super unlikely? Or is it going to start to be the only way to get in if "the other side are doing it"?
Unlikely to hit 60+ overhang; but I could see 20-30 seat overhang becoming "normal" if we don't fix it.
With minister salaries and extras; 30 "extra" MP's is getting dangerously close to $10M/yr
Realistically $10m is nothing in the budget of the country. My concerns are around democracy and the disproportion from people manipulating the system. As someone else mentioned in another post, Germany didn't really solve the issue but disincentivised it by basically cutting off the overhang if the party didn't get enough votes. If the overhangs are going to come from manipulation of the system instead of genuine desire for particular representatives then we should probably do something similar. I'd be ok with some limit like max overhang of 1 per party or something that would allow some flexibility without the purposeful manipulation. That would make the vote splitting strategy a lot riskier compared to the payoff. It might incentivise more smaller parties by TBH that's what I'd like.