Well currently we have an 11 seat overhang.
Not going to be enough seats in the house...
I'm really stuck between, happy opportunity good in, worried about our democracy with engineered overhangs and three more years of the country going backwards.
Yeah it's a bit shit that the current result has the right bloc leading by 1.5 seats yet they got 49.9% of the vote...
I don't think this was part of electoral reform recommendations though. How do other countries with similar systems protect against this sort of thing? I'm worried that manipulating the system will become commonplace from here on.
Ah nice, looks like solutions to our problems are already available. Now we just need a government to actually implement any election reform recommendation 🥲
Indeed
Meh, might go back to bed and wait for the specials to come in and hope for a large swing to the left...
You might be in bed for a while if you're staying there until the specials come in 😆.
A bit sad we added another minor party but there is still no choice in which parties can make government because of the giant overhang (hope they have enough physical seats for everyone!).
Technically Māori and Opportunity could replace NZF but I can't see modern day Māori going into coalition with the right, especially not with such a big Act.
I see the party(s) of 'smaller government' got the votes to have a substantial overhang on the right.
I wonder how many votes Opportunity could have got id Luxon hadn't ruled them out? Or if they are just too left to bleed votes from the Right 3
The left bloc are up two seats from the last election. The right bloc are down one seat since the last election. Opportunities' 7 seats have come from the right bloc, it's just that the right had a decent margin before, and also Act/NZF voters have engineered a bunch of new seats through manipulating the system.
National have 32% of the parliament with 29% of the vote.
Welp 😭 not looking good. How can so many still support them?
Propaganda
Without the vote splitting the coalition wouldn't have got over half 🙁
Despair setting in.
How much do special votes normally swing it by? IIRC they tend to be left leaning, though not sure if it's enough to change the seating arrangement.
RNZ's graphic is far better than the other two I've looked at from the main media (1news and stuff).
Looking at ten overhangs!
What's the chances that far right campaign to split the vote was responsible, or is it just a coincidence?
I think it was effective: it's odd that national gets only electorates and no list at all.
Yeah, I can't understand that - the graphic suggests no one voted for the party but they cleaned up on electorate seats?
That doesn't match the vote count...
It shows that there is no party list seats to 'top up' to get national up to their party-vote share: because they're actually six electorate seats above their 29% share of the party vote.
Or to put it a slightly different way: national is over-represented by their 42 electorate seats than their party-vote share.
42/120 is 35% of seats but they only got 29% of the party vote (so should only have 36 seats).
TPM also has more seats than their party vote proportion.
It is a little suspicious, but maybe also not that odd. People like their local MP, but with National leadership doing a shit job they might want to give their vote to a different party. This may be especially pertinent with some voting Opportunity but no chance of their local MP being from Opportunity.
Māori have 5 of the overhang so perhaps it's fair 🤷
Apparently as I write this National’s overhang is 4 seats. Certainly a strange situation for them and I think ACT and NZ First have done a good job in attracting voters and courting the party vote.
I’m a leftie but I have to acknowledge that at present the mood of the country does not seem to agree with me (apparently they’ve never needed medical care in the public system, amongst other issues). The politicians on the telly seem concerned that special votes could alter things so that seems worth waiting for, but I’m skeptical that they will materially change things.
I'm in Wellington, and work in and around the public service. People tend to be quite left compared to average.
I also have a lot of farmers in my extended family, and I am pretty bad at keeping my mouth shut which can make for some awkward moments...
I truly and honestly believe that the vast, vast majority of Act voters are voting Act because they are upset with National, because I find it hard to believe anyone could truly support their policies.
So, what's the balance of power looking like for someone less familiar with all of the smaller NZ parties? I figure labour and greens are to the left while national and ACT are on the right from the website, but the others I can't identify.
The graphic basically puts them in their places. On the right we have Act, National, and NZ First. Act is reasonably far right, National is centre right, and NZ First is populist bullshit make big promises and never have to follow through. NZ First has worked with the left in the past but ultimately their everything-ist views are more right than anything.
Greens are solid left, Labour is centre left, Māori party are specific to a group of people but typically are quite left (but have had a coalition with the right in a different time and place, almost 20 years back).
Opportunity are new kids on the block. They have never been in parliament before, and have shot from 2% to 8% in polls in a short amount of time (actual results are 5.8% at the moment, 5% is required to enter parliament most of the time). Opportunity are explicitly centralist, it's their platform. They campaigned on "stop reversing everything the last government did, let's find some policies both sides can agree on". Their actual policies range hugely, and they have used things like a broad land tax and a UBI to get their name in the media.
I think the most likely outcome (as of now, with 90% of the votes counter) is that the current coalition (National, Act, NZ First) retain power, but if the remainder get over half then Opportunity will likely go with the side that gives them the best deal.
I’m looking at the electorate results coming in from some of the tight electorates and shaking my head at some of the vote-splitting going on. Sure, FPP sucks but it’s how the game is currently being played, and it’s looking like some electorate votes will be unusually important in deciding the balance of power this time. I think some voters may come to regret their lack of strategy.
Opinion: vote better than Australians (I'm considering swimming to nz)
Surely they have their own version of One Nation?
Yeah, NZ First.
They really have no new ideas in their marketing do they. Dumb fucking fascists
This one is a nail-biter!
It's pretty tight with 38% counted!
Kia ora and welcome to the NZ Politics community!
This is a place for respectful discussions about everything that's political and kiwi
This is an inclusive space where diverse opinions are valued, but please don't be a dick
Other LemmyNZ communities here
Banner image by Tom Ackroyd, CC-BY-SA
